Why the Paris Agreement could Fail in Africa

The Paris agreement epitomized a global landmark when for the first time; all nations converged and jointly agreed to combat climate change by reducing greenhouse gases emissions. Climate scientists however, say if governments are serious about the global warming targets accepted at Paris, they have at best two options: without more ado eliminate fossil fuels or find ways to reverse damages caused by fossils to the climate system in the future – probably keeping global temperatures below 2 degrees Celsius or better 1.5 degrees ahead of the middle of this century as generally agreed by governments. At least both options are possible but their actual practice is seemingly improbable giving the present atmosphere of looming disjointedness over the global political will to push action towards real time visible and measurable steps at eliminating fossil fuels and other obviously avoidable anthropological activities harmful to the climate system. Apparently, United States Trump-led government’s recent about turn from the agreement occasions new susceptibilities upon which emerging plaques detrimental to the climate system and the Paris agreement intended goals lies. In the midst of these mix, Africa is the most affected region by climate change at the same time victimized by looming inaction demonstrated in too-much-talk-less-action syndrome.    

The major question surrounding the Paris Agreement and Africa to be specific goes beyond massive governments’ commitment to its signing and ratification. It is worth asking if African politicians understand the implications of the Paris Agreement’s objectives they have signed up for, and if at all there is any common understanding between African climate experts and African politicians of these goals? The goals on global temperatures reduction governments adopted in Paris don’t match the actions nations are taking to limit emissions, states Oliver Geden of the German institute for International and Security Affairs. If this isn’t true in Africa, then climate change mustn’t seen with sectoral agnosticism or be addressed in isolation or at worst in silos. Addressing the question of climate change must include social and economic justice and efforts for progressive socioeconomic and political development that transcends sectors and multistakeholders. The climate news from the horn of Africa where hundreds have died as droughts exacerbated by Elnino turned a region of over 200 million people into a desert of famine. And out of Southern Africa, in Mozambique, Malawi, Zimbabwe, Botswana and Namibia, where heaviest rains ever measured in 24 hours coupled with La Nina weather phenomenon and cyclones turned villages into lakes leaving dozens dead and affecting over 110,000 reports (IFRC Jan2017). Similar prevalence of climate disasters and other effects are eminent across all of Africa since after the adoption of the Paris climate deal. The paradox is a climate agreement like this falls short of Africa’s ability to downturn its heavy reliance on fossil fuels on one hand and circumventing the tragedy of fossil-fuel giants’ decades of self serving propaganda which puts Africa obviously too far into the mess to contain climate disasters. To meet the Paris climate targets by achieving 1.5 degrees Celsius and leaving all the remaining oil and coal into the ground, means Africa would not only need to accept new realities of halting technology transfer in the coal and fossil industries but also need to put our industries to a rather nuanced task to build the needed windmills, solar panels and electric cars and zero emissions machinery that will transform our economies from dirty energy to clean one. This requires political catalysts to stir direction and action as well the competence to research, design and deploy the appropriate green technologies. Where does Africa’s competence suffice in this chain, a question many ask? The obstacles for Africa are many. Africa needs climate finance for its carbon emissions reduction projects and these technologies are very expensive. The task is enormous as increasingly politicians have a different view of climate change from the view of scientist and unless the will of the politician is converted in concrete actions scientist will only have their say and politicians will continue to have their way. And essentially implementing the Paris accord will mean a “get from donor then invest” scenario which ultimately presupposes that Africa’s ability to implement the accord to its ability relies on how it get donor financing. 

However, a systematic transformation of Africa’s implementation strategy of the Paris agreement and climate finance policy is required, so they are first of all Africa-centred and inclusively people-centred, independent and deliver sincerely on the SDGs, the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction, the INDCs and African union Agenda 2063. 

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